Showing posts with label Sulfabittas Caribbean Political Analysis. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sulfabittas Caribbean Political Analysis. Show all posts

Sunday, September 6, 2026

Wars, wishful thinking and the coming chaos after Trump!


The MAGA Shockwave: How Donald Trump’s nationalist agenda is rewriting the global order and setting up a volatile future!

By Norris R. McDonald

Norris R. McDonald, Author & Human Rights Activist

When great powers play geopolitical chess, ordinary people become the pawns—and when the bombs stop falling, the bills do not.

That is the uncomfortable lesson of an increasingly dangerous world in which military power, economic coercion and geopo


litical rivalry collide with the everyday struggle for economic survival.

The United States and its allies still possess enormous military, financial and diplomatic power, but that power has limits. As American dominance faces growing challenges abroad and contradictions at home, Washington and its allies increasingly rely on tariffs, sanctions, military alliances and long-range weapons to preserve their influence.


Donald Trump has added a particularly volatile dimension through his nationalist agenda, aggressive tariff policies and willingness to confront allies and adversaries alike.

WARS AND THE POLITICS OF WISHFUL THINKING

Trump, however, did not create these contradictions. He accelerated them. The crisis is larger than one president or political party. It reflects a global system increasingly using military power and economic dominance to defend strategic interests while ordinary people absorb the costs.

The Russia-Ukraine war, now sustained by massive Western military support for Kyiv, illustrates these dangers. Western countries possess extraordinary military capabilities, but recent history demonstrates that military superiority does not automatically produce durable political outcomes.

Afghanistan, Iraq and Libya showed the enormous difference between destroying military targets and achieving lasting political objectives.

Russia presents an even more dangerous challenge. It is a nuclear-armed great power with substantial military capabilities, strategic depth and significant escalation options.

The question is not whether Western militaries are powerful—they unquestionably are—but whether military pressure can produce the desired political outcome without creating consequences more dangerous than the original objective.

ANDY BURNHAM AND EUROPEAN HUBRIS

That concern has become more pronounced with Britain’s expanding military support for Ukraine. Prime Minister Andy Burnham authorized actions concerning British components used in the SCALP/Storm Shadow missile system to facilitate greater Ukrainian capacity to produce long-range weapons.



Moscow responded with explicit threats to strike British military targets in response to Ukrainian attacks involving British-supplied long-range weapons. Whatever one’s view of Britain’s support for Ukraine, such exchanges can widen the circle of states Moscow regards as directly involved and increase the danger that a war already consuming Ukraine could spread beyond its borders.

This is the danger of geopolitical escalation. Each additional step is presented as necessary and controlled, yet their cumulative effect can erase the boundary between indirect involvement and direct confrontation. Eventually, governments may create consequences their architects can no longer control.

WHO ULTIMATELY PAYS?

Governments authorize billions of dollars in military spending while defence industries receive enormous contracts, and political leaders invoke national security. Ordinary people experience these conflicts through the price of food, transportation, electricity, rent and other necessities.

Wars disrupt energy markets, shipping routes, commodity supplies and international trade. Sanctions, tariffs and countersanctions can alter supply chains and increase import, transportation and production costs.

Wealthier countries have greater capacity to absorb these shocks. Smaller developing economies carrying significant debt and depending heavily on imports have far less room to manoeuvre.

That is why Jamaica cannot regard distant wars as somebody else’s problem. We import energy, food, manufactured goods, machinery and other essentials.

When shipping becomes more expensive, commodity prices rise or international uncertainty increases, the consequences eventually reach Jamaican households. The battlefield may be thousands of miles away, but the economic consequences are not.

THE POOR PAY THE BILL

The working class understands something political elites too often forget somebody eventually has to pay the bill.

Small farmers, artisans, daily-wage workers, pensioners, low-income families and the struggling middle class cannot command military alliances or negotiate trillion-dollar trade agreements. They absorb the consequences through reduced purchasing power and higher household costs.

Here lies a fundamental political contradiction. Governments can mobilize enormous resources when they declare a geopolitical emergency, yet ordinary citizens are repeatedly told that affordable housing, healthcare, education and stronger social protection must wait because there is insufficient money.

If governments can find billions for military priorities, why is comparable urgency so difficult to summon when people face housing, food and healthcare crises?

That is not merely an economic question. It is a question of political priorities.

BREAD-AND-BUTTER ISSUES AND THE CHAOS AFTER TRUMP

This is why bread-and-butter politics matters.

People want to know that they will be able to afford a decent home. They care about their children’s future and the need for good quality education. The rising cost of healthcare and prescription drugs are creating financial ruin. And this demand urgent solutions. Overall, wages must pace with living costs thereby allowing the working class to not only put food on the table but satisfy other basic needs.

In the end Donald Trump will eventually, unceremoniously, leave office. But the frustrations of the working class that he exploited with rampant racism and aggressive nationalism, will still confront America and demand urgent solutions.

The political turbulences created by Trump’s warmongering and virulent policies most certainly cannot be solved by a change of face to a Democratic or Republican politician who may be just as warmongering as he is.

Poor people and the middle class are exhausted. A stronger alternative begins with a different understanding of national power. A strong society is one in which people can afford to live with dignity, and a strong country is one in which families are not destroyed by food prices, housing costs, medical bills and insecure employment.

Maybe that’s why New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani, Angie Nixon, Dr. Abdul Sayed, and other democratic socialists are scoring political successes. It is not about political rhetoric. It is about practical policies that eliminate hunger, homelessness, poor health, decrepit schools and inferior education.

Great power leaders can wave their oppressive flag of imperialism as high as they want. But they cannot hide the excruciating hunger of mothers and children belly pain.

In the end, people will judge their governments by the most basic measure of all: Can we afford to live and survive on scraps and handouts?

That is just the bitta truth.

About the Author

Norris R. McDonald is an author, respiratory therapist, and economic journalist whose work focuses on political economy, public health, healthcare systems, and global public policy. He is a regular contributor of public commentary and analysis for the Jamaica Gleaner, where he examines the intersection of economics, governance, social justice, and development in Jamaica, the Caribbean, and the Global South.

RESOURCES:

Caribbean Growth Illusion: Dead Money, Human Justice, and the Fight for Economic Dignity in 2026! WHY JAMAICA MUST PUT ITS WEALTH TO WORK!


Monday, July 13, 2026

HUMAN JUSTICE ECONOMICS: 'Dead Money' and Jamaica's Forgotten Development Strategy

THE DEAD MONEY SERIES -Part 11... 

Macroeconomic stability was never supposed to be the final destination. It was intended to become the foundation upon which productive wealth, national ownership and economic sovereignty could be built.


By Norris R. McDonald, SULFABITTAS NEWS, Caribbean Political Analysis, July 13, 2026 (Updated July 14)

Reviving Jamaica's Forgotten Development Vision

Norris R.McDonald
Part I argued that Jamaica's remarkable success in restoring macroeconomic stability has not produced a corresponding expansion in productive wealth. Debt ratios have improved, inflation has moderated and foreign exchange reserves have reached historically comfortable levels, yet many Jamaicans continue struggling with stagnant wages, rising living costs, declining agricultural production and limited opportunities to accumulate wealth. 

The contradiction is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. Fiscal discipline has restored financial credibility, but financial credibility alone cannot generate the jobs, industries, technological innovation and productive enterprises necessary to raise living standards. Stability protects an economy from collapse, but stability by itself does not build prosperity. The next phase of Jamaica's development therefore requires a deliberate transition from preserving financial assets to mobilising them for productive national investment.

Growing more, feeding Jamaica's future.

This challenge is neither new nor theoretical. More than four decades ago, Jamaica's policymakers, economists and development planners wrestled with precisely the same question. Could a small developing country escape the historical legacy of plantation dependency by strengthening domestic production, expanding industrial capacity, increasing agricultural output and mobilising local savings to finance its own development? The search for those answers produced one of the most ambitious economic exercises in modern Jamaican history—the National Production Plan.

The National Production Plan

My interest in this debate is not simply academic. As the representative of the Minister of National Mobilization, Dr. D.K. Duncan, I served on the Economic Commission responsible for preparing the National Production Plan. It was a remarkable period of intellectual engagement. Working alongside distinguished economists, including Professors George Beckford, Michael Witter, and other accomplished Jamaican scholars and public servants, we attempted to develop an economic framework capable of reducing Jamaica's dependence upon imported goods, external borrowing and foreign ownership while strengthening domestic production, manufacturing, agriculture and national capital formation. The objective was never isolation from the global economy. Rather, it was to ensure that Jamaica participated in the international economy from a position of greater productive strength and economic self-confidence.

Unfortunately, history intervened. As international economic conditions deteriorated and Jamaica confronted mounting fiscal and balance-of-payments pressures, policy priorities shifted toward stabilisation, structural adjustment and debt management under programmes supported by the International Monetary Fund. Those reforms undoubtedly restored important elements of financial credibility and helped prevent even deeper economic instability. Yet they also redirected national attention away from the longer-term challenge of expanding productive capacity. Fiscal adjustment gradually became the centrepiece of economic policy while the broader vision of production-led development receded into the background.

The consequences remain visible today. Jamaica has become considerably more successful at managing public finances than at expanding domestic production. Agricultural imports continue to absorb valuable foreign exchange. Manufacturing contributes a relatively modest share of national output. Too many talented young professionals continue to migrate overseas. Rural communities struggle with inadequate irrigation, poor feeder roads and limited access to productive credit, while many entrepreneurs remain constrained by high financing costs and insufficient investment capital. These structural weaknesses cannot be solved through balanced budgets alone. They require deliberate, sustained investment in the productive sectors that generate long-term national wealth.

Beckford, Witter and the Meaning of Productive Wealth

The intellectual foundation for that alternative development strategy was articulated most powerfully by Professors George Beckford and Michael Witter in Small Garden, Bitter Weed. Their work challenged Jamaicans to think beyond short-term macroeconomic management and confront the deeper structural realities inherited from the plantation economy. Beckford argued that although political independence had been achieved, the economic structures of colonialism continued to shape production, ownership and the distribution of wealth. The plantation economy had not simply disappeared with the lowering of the Union Jack. It had evolved. Too often, wealth continued to flow outward while domestic production remained constrained, leaving Jamaica dependent upon imports, foreign capital and external markets.

That analysis remains remarkably relevant in 2026. Jamaica has become more financially stable, yet the productive sectors capable of generating broad-based prosperity continue to lag behind. Tourism remains the dominant foreign exchange earner, but much of its value chain leaks overseas through imported food, foreign ownership and profit repatriation. Agriculture possesses enormous untapped potential, yet the country continues importing billions of dollars' worth of food each year. Manufacturing has survived but has not expanded sufficiently to become a major engine of economic transformation. The result is an economy that has become increasingly proficient at managing scarcity while still struggling to generate abundance.

The consequences are visible in the daily lives of ordinary Jamaicans. Many workers remain trapped in low-paying employment with little opportunity to accumulate assets or pass wealth to the next generation. Young graduates often conclude that migration offers the most reliable path to economic advancement. Farmers battle uncertain markets, inadequate irrigation and poor rural infrastructure, while entrepreneurs frequently confront high borrowing costs and limited access to long-term investment capital. These are not merely individual hardships; they are symptoms of an economy that has not yet fully converted financial stability into productive expansion.

From Dead Money to Living Capital

This is where the concept of Dead Money becomes important. Jamaica's foreign exchange reserves are not inherently problematic. They perform a vital role in protecting the economy from external shocks and maintaining confidence in the Jamaican dollar. No serious economist would advocate recklessly exhausting those reserves. The issue is whether financial strength should remain largely passive while productive opportunities continue to be underfunded.

Human Justice Economics suggests a different approach. It asks whether accumulated national wealth can become a catalyst for expanding productive capacity through carefully governed institutions that preserve macroeconomic stability while mobilizing investment for long-term development. The objective is not indiscriminate government spending. It is disciplined investment in those sectors capable of generating sustainable returns for society as a whole—modern irrigation systems that increase agricultural output, renewable energy projects that reduce imported fuel costs, digital infrastructure that strengthens competitiveness, affordable housing that builds family wealth, scientific research that stimulates innovation and manufacturing that adds value to Jamaican resources.

Building dreams!

Every successful economy eventually reaches a point where protecting wealth is no longer sufficient. Prosperity depends upon putting wealth to work. Money sitting passively in financial accounts may preserve stability, but money invested prudently in productive enterprises creates employment, expands output, broadens the tax base and generates still more wealth. That is the difference between preserving capital and multiplying it.

A National Development Conversation

This is why Jamaica needs a mature national conversation about development. The debate should not be framed as a choice between fiscal discipline and productive investment, because the two are complementary rather than contradictory. Fiscal responsibility provides the confidence necessary for investment, while productive investment strengthens the economy that ultimately sustains fiscal responsibility. One without the other produces an incomplete development strategy.

The discussion should therefore extend well beyond political parties. Economists, manufacturers, farmers, financial institutions, universities, trade unions, entrepreneurs and community organizations all have a stake in determining how Jamaica's accumulated financial strength can support a new generation of productive investment. The question is not whether the country should abandon prudent macroeconomic management. The question is how that hard-earned stability can become the launching pad for stronger domestic production, higher productivity, technological advancement and broader national ownership.

Building Jamaica's future through investment!

History suggests that Jamaica has confronted this challenge before. Michael Manley's Capital Development Fund, the National Housing Trust and the National Production Plan all reflected an understanding that national savings and national resources should be mobilised to build productive assets capable of serving future generations. Those institutions emerged from a philosophy that recognised development as more than balancing budgets. Development meant creating wealth, expanding opportunity and strengthening the productive foundations of the nation.

Part III of this series will examine how Jamaica could adapt those historical lessons to the twenty-first century through a modern National Development Fund protected by legislation, insulated from partisan politics and governed by the highest standards of transparency, accountability and professional investment management. The objective would not be to replace fiscal discipline but to ensure that financial strength becomes the engine of productive prosperity rather than remaining dormant as Dead Money.

That is the Just Bitta Truth.

ABOUT THE AUTHOR

About the Author

Norris R. McDonald is an author, respiratory therapist, and economic journalist whose work focuses on political economy, public health, healthcare systems, and global public policy. He is a regular contributor of public commentary and analysis for the Jamaica Gleaner, where he examines the intersection of economics, governance, social justice, and development in Jamaica, the Caribbean, and the Global South.

RESOURCES:

Caribbean Growth Illusion: Dead Money, Human Justice, and the Fight for Economic Dignity in 2026! WHY JAMAICA MUST PUT ITS WEALTH TO WORK!

THE MINISTRY OF NATIONAL MOBILIZATION AND HUMAN RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT, MINISTRY PAPER NO. 26, ON PARISH PRODUCTION COMMISSIONS



Friday, April 10, 2026

Caribbean Growth Under Siege: Oil Crisis, Cuba Blackouts and Rising Costs

Growth on Paper, Pressure in Real Life

Caribbean Growth Under Siege: Rising oil prices, geopolitical conflict, and climate shocks are squeezing fragile economies already burdened by dependency and inequality.

... From the Middle East oil shock to Cuba’s blackouts and Venezuela’s disruption, Caribbean economies are paying the price for dependence in a dangerous geopolitical age!


By Norris R. McDonald

Sulfabittas: Caribbean Political Analysis | April 2026

A Fragile Recovery in a Hostile Global Economy
The Caribbean economy is growing—but don’t be fooled. This is not prosperity. This is pressure dressed up as progress. Behind the numbers lies a harsher truth: rising oil prices, geopolitical conflict, and deep structural dependency are squeezing households while leaders celebrate fragile gains.

Norris R. McDonald

At the same time, Guyana’s oil-driven expansion has created a dramatic contrast within the region. Its rapid growth has reshaped national income statistics and attracted global attention, but it also highlights a deeper structural imbalance. The Caribbean is no longer moving as a unified economic bloc. Instead, it is diverging, with outcomes increasingly determined by access to natural resources rather than diversified, resilient development strategies.

 “Every oil shock is a tax on Caribbean survival.”

Guyana’s oil boom highlights a new Caribbean divide—resource-rich growth on one side, and vulnerable, import-dependent economies on the other.

Oil Shocks and the Middle East Crisis

The most immediate pressure point now comes from global oil markets. The Middle East crisis, involving heightened tensions and conflict among major powers, has pushed oil prices sharply upward and introduced new volatility into energy supply chains. For the Caribbean, this is not distant geopolitics. It is a direct economic burden. Because the region imports most of its fuel, rising oil prices immediately translate into higher electricity bills, increased transportation costs, and more expensive goods. Airlines face rising fuel costs, shipping prices climb, and tourism becomes more vulnerable as travel costs increase. Each escalation abroad becomes a cost passed down to Caribbean households.

Venezuela, Sanctions, and the Collapse of a Regional Buffer

This vulnerability is compounded by the collapse of a key regional buffer. For years, Venezuela provided subsidized oil to Caribbean nations through Petrocaribe, helping to stabilize energy costs and ease fiscal pressure. That system has now effectively unraveled. U.S. intervention, sanctions, and political upheaval in Venezuela have disrupted oil flows and transformed the country’s energy sector into a geopolitical battleground. What was once a stabilizing force is now a source of uncertainty. Caribbean nations must now compete on the open market for fuel, paying higher and more volatile prices without the support mechanisms they once relied on.

Cuba’s Energy Crisis: A Warning Signal
Cuba’s current crisis offers a stark illustration of where extreme dependency can lead. The island is experiencing widespread blackouts, disrupted transportation, and rising food insecurity due to severe fuel shortages. 

“Cuba is not an exception—it is a warning.”

The reduction of Venezuelan oil shipments, combined with the long-standing U.S. embargo on Cuba, has left the country with limited options to secure reliable energy supplies. The consequences are visible in daily life, as power outages and economic hardship intensify. While official inflation figures remain controlled, conditions in informal markets suggest far higher real inflation, reflecting currency weakness and declining purchasing power. 

Cuba’s situation is not an isolated anomaly but an intensified version of the same structural vulnerability facing the wider Caribbean.

Inflation as Imported Economic Pressure
Across the region, inflation is no longer just a technical economic measure. It is the direct transmission of global instability into domestic life. High energy costs combine with rising shipping expenses to push up the price of food, construction materials, and basic goods. 

Because Caribbean economies depend heavily on imports, these external pressures are quickly felt by households and businesses. Families face rising grocery bills and utility costs, while small businesses struggle with increasing operating expenses. In this context, inflation acts as a structural force that redistributes hardship downward, eroding living standards even as economies show nominal growth.

Tourism Economies Under Pressure
Tourism-dependent economies are particularly exposed to this dynamic. Their growth relies on stable global conditions, yet those conditions are becoming increasingly unpredictable. Higher fuel prices raise airline ticket costs and reduce visitor demand. 

Hurricane destruction in the Caribbean shows how climate shocks can erase economic gains overnight, hitting tourism and poor communities the hardest.

Climate-related events such as hurricanes damage infrastructure and disrupt tourism flows. At the same time, rising local costs make it more expensive to operate hotels, restaurants, and transportation services. The result is a fragile economic model where external shocks can quickly undermine gains.

A Region Caught in Geopolitics
The Caribbean now finds itself caught in a wider geopolitical transformation. Energy has become a central instrument of global power, with oil flows shaped by sanctions, alliances, and strategic competition. 

Countries across the Global South are responding by seeking alternative partnerships for energy, financing, and infrastructure. However, within the Caribbean basin, there is growing pressure to maintain alignment within a Western Hemisphere framework, limiting the strategic flexibility of small island states. This dynamic reinforces a long-standing pattern in which Caribbean economies absorb the consequences of decisions made elsewhere.

The Path Forward: Resilience or Dependency
The path forward requires a fundamental shift in economic strategy. Energy diversification is essential, including greater investment in renewable sources to reduce dependence on imported oil. Expanding local agriculture can strengthen food security and reduce vulnerability to global price shocks. 

Local agriculture and Black Caribbean farmers represent the path forward—food security, resilience, and economic independence in a volatile global system.

Climate-resilient infrastructure must be prioritized to protect against increasingly severe weather events. Regional cooperation can also play a critical role in reducing import dependence and strengthening collective resilience.

The Bottom Line: A Region Paying for Other People’s Wars

The Caribbean is not at war—but it is paying the price for wars it did not start. Every spike in Middle East oil prices, every sanction on Venezuela, every restriction on Cuba’s energy supply shows up in the region the same way: higher food prices, higher electricity bills, and less money in people’s pockets. 

This is the real crisis. Not growth rates. Not IMF targets. Not political speeches. Just dependency.

“Tourism brings money in—but dependency sends it right back out.”

At the end of the day, a Caribbean regional economy built on handouts, imported fuel, imported food, and imported solutions will always be vulnerable to external shocks. And in a world now defined by conflict, sanctions, and strategic competition, those shocks are no longer occasional—they are constant.

The Caribbean cannot borrow its way out of this. It cannot tourist its way out of this. And it cannot wait for global stability that may never come. The future will belong to countries that produce what they consume, generate their own energy, and build systems that protect their people from global volatility.

Until then, the region remains exactly where it is today: Growing—but under siege.

If you don’t control your energy and your food, you don’t control your economy—someone else does.

Copyright 2026- Norris R. McDonald, SULFABITTAS NEWS, @sulfabittas


About the Author

Norris R. McDonald is an author, respiratory therapist, and economic journalist whose work focuses on political economy, public health, healthcare systems, and global public policy. He is a regular contributor of public commentary and analysis for the Jamaica Gleaner, where he examines the intersection of economics, governance, social justice, and development in Jamaica, the Caribbean, and the Global South.

_____________

Follow Sulfabittas: Caribbean Political Analysis,  for comprehensive political analysis on major Caribbean and global political developments affecting Jamaica and the world.

READ MORE SULFABITTAS: CARIBBEAN POLITICAL ANALYSIS ON CUBA HERE: ðŸ‘‡]


Norris R. McDonald President Trump Marches On A New Political Crusade Against Cuba

________

Norris R. McDonald | Mice, men, Cuban doctors, and our predatory world

__________

UN experts condemn US executive order imposing fuel blockade on Cuba